Mike Rowehl: This is Mobility

Russ posted already that we’re shutting down Mowser. I was chatting with him earlier, and we’re looking to sell what we have already rather than just toss it all. I still think it’s a great service that could fulfill a pressing need for a bunch of mobile sites out there. I’m not nearly as down on the idea of Mowser and the future of the mobile web as Russ is. Given the licensing fees associated with a few of the other adaption engines out there focused on mobile we could probably sell it for enough to get Russ out of debt and at the same time save some service provider a ton of money. If you’re interested let me know. miker at mowser dot com.

While I was upgrading to Wordpress 2.5 this morning I happened across this post I noted but never finished. So it’s a bit less timely, but the overall issues are still interesting.

Looks like modular handset manufacturer Modu is raising a bunch of money. It’s an interesting concept, but certainly not new. Back at the start of 2004 I was taking a look at a company called Antelope who had a product called a Modular Computing Core that promised much the same thing.

The normal argument around getting your data and service where you want them when you want them goes something like this in mobile:

1. Person 1 says that the problem is best solved by a set of services that run on each device/computer/gadget and allow you to synchronize your data and preferences information so that you don’t have to keep entering stuff over and over again.
2. Person 2 says that increasing network coverage and speed coupled with decreasing access costs and competition between access mechanisms for share of user traffic will result in an “always on” infrastructure that makes syncing unnecessary. Just put the data and preferences up in the cloud and always access them realtime online. Surely the network will be acceptable for any use like this before a realistic set of services and clients to sync become available.
3. Person 1 says something like “Bah, SyncML clients come installed on all kinds of handsets already.” And then they start bashing the networks as still being unreliable and unable to move large amounts of data for an effective cost and at the necessary speed.
4. Person 2 says “Ha! SyncML has been around forever and has yet to yield a workable direct consumer application.” Then something about it doing even less than Bluetooth to foster cross-service information semantics, which make it unworkable as a base for large scale cross-application syncing let alone cross-domain syncing.

The discussion always goes on from there, is always circular, and never reaches any conclusion. Normally I wander away by the second round if I haven’t already slipped out by the first round. Which isn’t to say that interesting work isn’t being done on both sides of the equation. Funambol writes some kick ass open source software that makes it more and more realistic to use SyncML every day. However, I still don’t. The Nokia implementation is broken in some way or something of the sort. I would have to setup my own server to get it working, and many of the services I would be interested in using are marked as very beta. And on the other side efforts like OpenID and OAuth are making it more likely that I can just store stuff in the cloud and use it where I like. But even basic interoperability for things like preferences and personalization don’t seem to have made it into general use. And while some of the efforts used to have a focus on mobile, very little seems to have even a consideration for mobile any more.

So in that context a modular computing core is interesting. It’s kinda like flipping both camps the bird and saying “I don’t think either of you are going to get your shit together in any reasonable timeframe, so I’m going to create a way to solve this problem completely in hardware.” Not sure I agree with it, software systems enjoy economies of scale and flexibility that hardware based solutions don’t. But in the meantime, it’s a novel way to endrun both issues and get your stuff where you want it when you want it.

Great post from the Mippin folks explaining a problem with cookies on mobile devices, in the US in particular. I’ve heard support numbers all over the place from folks. Some say cookies fail 50% of the time, others say they work in all but 5% of the cases. Apparently there’s some major issues with using a bare TLD with Openwave (either browsers, gateways, or browsers and gateways - see this Openwave FAQ for some info about how they’ve mucked up identifiers). Good info to know.

If this is a browser plus gateway issue it would be nice to see it get fixed. If this is a browser issue that can’t be fixed I think we all need to make sure to continue giving Openwave folks the evil eye when you see them (I’m assuming you all do already, just keep it up). Come on Openwave! This is your chance to prove to us all you’re not completely useless. I’ll be keeping an eye out for major network changes.

The second part of a series of mobile payments posts I’m making to get ready for BarCampBankSF later on this month. The first part was a problem overview for the issues. This part is about the Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) that stand in the way of trying to get a global system going for moving money around.

I was going to hold off on this topic for a while, but then I ran across this gem of a report from our beloved US government explaining why mobile payments could destroy the world. The whole topic area right here just strikes me as backward, small minded, and at it’s base just really stupid. Here we have the potential for a fantastic system, uncoupling the concept of money from bits of paper and metal. Making it easy for people to do what they want with their money when they want. Being able to reach out and help friends and relatives in far away places instantly.

But instead of seeing the potential upside (not, potential upside, most of us don’t have the ability to do the things discussed in that report under the current set of services), instead what’s called out is the potential for abuse by a very small percentage of the population. I just don’t get that mentality at all. It’s like not allowing cars because people could get drunk and drive around in them. Or declaring that everyone has to walk around naked cause someone could hide weapons under their clothes. It’s just absurd. Why cripple everyone because you’re concerned about the behavior of a few? Apparently all you have to do is include the word “terrorism” and you can propose just about anything you want.

I personally don’t buy it at all. If you want to cut off the potential use of a system by terrorism, sure, by all means! I’m not going to stand in your way. But if you want to cripple a system that dictates what I can do with my money, how I can do it, and when I can do it, well then we have a bit of an issue. If you want to cut off terrorism do things that affect terrorists and money launderers. Inconveniencing everyone in order to do so is just lazy thinking. Unfortunately people have strong and irrational feelings about things like this cause they feel their safety is threatened (Surprise! You never really had safety, you’ve just become more aware of not having it), and any bit of absolutist thinking they can hold on to in order to make them feel better. Well darnit, that’s just going to have to do. Cutting off terrorism by cutting off their funding is one of those areas (Surprise! That’s not going to work either, probably won’t even slow it down).

Unfortunately what we’re working at here, at heart, is a fundamental change in the way people think about money. And like any major change, that really makes people nervous. Especially people who have a vested interest in the particular limitations, controls, and structures brought about by the incidental effects of the current system. People like governments and banks, who unfortunately are holding most of the cards in this game. In order to figure out a workable system we either need to work around the folks who would normally stand in our way, or convert them to our side. Most of the efforts that have come before are based around a third option of giving incentive to the existing folks and caving in to their restrictions. I don’t consider that option to be on the table, limiting a new system to make the players in the old system happy isn’t a path to progress in my opinion.

Converting the existing folks to our side seems like it could be pretty difficult. Hard to say though with the setup the way it is in mobile payments. With the carrier sitting in the middle of every significant transaction we might be able to play the banks against the carriers to come up with a system that works at scale to break open that market for the banks. But the banks have their own sets of issues. Working completely around the existing system might be the real option we have. Direct user to user payments with something only vaguely resembling a bank in the middle. Using alternative “payment” methods like trading prepaid minutes or prepaid messages. That gives us a bit of a foothold, but how does the regulation and legal arena look for schemes like that? For instance can I take $25 from someone in CA and at their request provide it to someone in NY for withdrawl? What needs to be reported and recorded in that case, and what base restrictions are there? If someone has good pointers please share them.

I had heard about Everyblock.com in the context of it being the continuation of the chicagocrime.org by Adrian Holovaty. I had never really poked at it though, mostly because it didn’t yet have info for my area yet. But then yesterday I was listening to the Udell interview with Holovaty and picked up some interesting threads.

The first is the applicability of the project to something like augmenting reality. As it is right now Everyblock is sucking in info from all over the place, scraping information out of it and unifying where it can, and presenting all the data together for a location. There’s definitely usefulness for finding out what’s going on in your neighborhood as a direct consumer. And for journalists it helps with trend spotting and information correlation. However if you reorganize the info around rates of change or concentration instead of events you could make some great mobile apps. Like an overlay for a Google maps style app that would alert you if you’re headed into a high crime area. The plan it to emit structured data back out of Everyblock in addition to offering the site directly on top of the data. When that happens it might allow some interesting apps that would otherwise be impractical or impossible right now.

The other bit that I found interesting was Jon’s comment that the evolving role of librarians in local libraries could include organizing and cataloging sources of local information such as the crime data or building permit info that Everyblock is currently doing. That’s an interesting angle on the role of the librarian and the library in our current information rich environment.

There’s an event called BarCamp Bank coming up in Berkeley in a few weeks. I saw that a few people signed up for the event were already listed as interested in digital cash or mobile payment systems. I figure it’ll be a good chance to gather some folks and discuss what options we have available, and I want to kick the conversation off so that we can get to the real meat of the discussion while we’re there.

The first thing I want to say is that existing mobile payments do not work. I’ve heard it said a number of times that mobile “comes with a built in payment system”, but that’s really a load of shit. Allow me to elaborate.

First of all theres the structure and revenue share of the existing payment infrastructure. In the cases where it’s possible to bill back to the customer bill the functionality is backdoored in frequently through premium SMS messaging. The carrier generally takes a large share of the transaction (I hear numbers like 50 percent here in the US, and I’ve been told it’s even worse in India). And of course the transaction isn’t directly from merchant to carrier to customer. Oh no, of course not. Theres the premium SMS provider in the middle as well also wanting their cut. It’s a hostile environment for merchants with way too much lockin for existing players. The base costs to use these systems are so high, and the overhead so steep, that it really discourages lots of potentially interesting usages.

Second is the off-deck payment systems. Stuff like Google Checkout for mobile, PayPal Mobile, and Obopay. First is of course that there are some user interface or user perception issues around the services. They also assume a credit based economy. No problem in the US and Europe, but a horrible problem in Africa, India, and China. “Who cares about people in China” you say? (particularly if you live in the Bay Area, people around here just love to dismiss the rest of the world) Well, ask anyone who watches construction and commodity markets where they think interesting stuff is happening. I bet those folks are interested in China at the very least. For all the nastiness of carrier billing, at least it handles the cash based economy and prepaid cell plans relatively well.

And finally, say we had a magic system that everyone could use with minimal setup and a great experience, every user had access to it, and every online merchant accepted it. Now you start having to worry about some pretty heavy regulation. There are banking and financial regulations meant to insure the basic level of trust. But recently there are also more regulations meant to curb money laundering and nefarious activities. How many people are familiar with those regulations on a global level? Even if we crack the technical problems and solve the user interface issues and gain user trust there’s still some potential issues with the G-men, whoever those shadowy puppetmasters might be.

So thats what we’re looking at. Tough, but things worth tackling normally are. Next post on this topic is a bit of background on whats been tried in the past and what technologies exist. The hat will be tipped to David Chaum I’m sure, but I need to read up a bit before I’m ready for that.

Michael Mace posted a great wrapup of a few threads that have been going around with respect to native vs browser based mobile development. He does a great job of laying down a nice linear story about the evolving development environment. And of course everyone who had an interest in seeing native mobile application development continue is all up in arms about his statements. I agree, kinda, but not really completely.

Of course this isn’t a black and white question. It’s not that mobile web apps have suddenly magically hit some threshold and now native apps will never be used for anything. It’s an analog value of course. Mobile web apps are getting better, the browsers more robust, the devices more capable. What’s happening is that while you HAD to write a native or Java app in the past in order to get a passable product to market, you can do more and more just using the browser.

Same exact thing as the desktop market. Pause, take a deep breath. Yes, same exact thing as the desktop market. Sure there are differences down in the details, and that doesn’t mean that mobile apps are going to be exactly like desktop apps. The market forces in play are the same. Web apps mean easier distribution, faster release cycle, higher leverage on improving the base platform, decreased barrier to entry, etc. And a third time, same exact thing as the desktop market.

Does that mean that native application development is dead on mobiles? Well, do you use any native applications on your desktop? Most people still do, but you use them when it makes sense to have a native app instead of a web based one. The same thing should shake out in mobile. That just means that native apps should be used where having a native app delivers actual increased value. Which I’m sure is what the folks defending native apps are most afraid of, needing to actually defend their position in the face of competition. That’s going to be rough, they’re so used to having a captive audience.

The overall statement from Michael I agree with however:

If you’re a mobile developer, you should consider stopping native app development and shifting to a mobile-optimized website.

Yes, that you should do. Step back and honestly ask yourself “can I do this on the mobile web instead more easily?” The answer might be no still, but for an increasing group of people it’s going to be yes. Take into account the off-deck monetization models available with advertising (and I do hope direct monetization will enter the mix soon on a global scale) and distribution through either advertising or searches (Google is sucking up as many partners as it can get to make its service the default) and the overall environment available for direct to consumer mobile web apps is starting to look like a viable alternative even when compared to native app development coupled with carrier partnerships. Because the off-deck ecosystem benefits from more network effects than the carrier model we should see it keep rolling right along now that it’s started to tip.

Update: The conversation going on around this thread has been great, plenty of bright people with excellent points to contribute. If you’re following it make sure to also read these posts:

• Sounding The Death Knell For Native Mobile Apps
• On Mobile Applications, RIP
• Standalone Mobile Apps vs Web Apps on Mobile

I have a problem with wifi routers. I don’t know why it is, maybe I abuse them too much. But I’ve gone through a few routers over the last year. At AdMob we had the same kinds of problems, wifi routers would just do odd things. They would just stop routing, or slow down to a crawl after a while. This one that I had at home last started “stuttering” when I connected to IM. It would stop routing packets for about 70 seconds when I connected to IM. I verified that I wasn’t crazy by running a ping to an external site from another machine while I connected to IM from this one. Sure enough there were a bunch of dropped packets right when I connected. Why? No idea.

Russ jokes that I have inverse technical ability - the more complex something is the more likely it is that I’ll get it working. And for some reason, the less complex it is, the more likely it is to cause problems for me. So naturally it would seem the right way to solve this simple technical issue of getting a base networking component to just route packets for me would be to make it more complex. So I was going to dig out one of my old Linux systems, put two network cards in it, and configure it as my router.

However, I also noticed that Linksys WRT54GL routers are on sale. The Linksys WRT54G was the router that folks hacked to run Linux, but then Linksys changed the design so that they could run VxWorks instead. The WRT54GL version is the old version, brought back by Linksys cause there was a lot of vocal support for the design from the hackers.

What’s this? A way to run Linux on my router using a platform and distribution system I’ve never even touched before? Well that’s sure to work! I just tried it out today, and it did:

Actually took less time to get this router working than it did to get the last commercial router swap working last time I decided to try a new bit of kit. Looks like Russ’s theory might have some legs.

I just signed up for the BarCamp Bank event in Berkeley next month. Not my normal venue, but I would really like to get a conversation going around mobile payments. In short, they don’t work. There’s point solutions here and there that allow a limited number of merchants to interact with a geographically segmented group of users, but nothing that works at the scale of the web. If 2008 is going to be the year of the mobile web we need a way for people doing stuff on it to be able to pay other people providing stuff. And it can’t be based on what carrier you’re on, and which handset you have, or if you happen to be in the United States. We need a global infrastructure for payments on mobile that works for everyone everywhere.

I’m hoping that with folks there looking at issues like social money, risk management and fraud prevention, and online operations maybe they can help us figure out how to crack the nut and get at something better than what we have.

Apparently the technology now exists to tell good espresso from bad, so I have some subjective measure to go on when I complain about these kinds of things. I don’t want it built into the coffee machine though, I want it built into my phone. So that when I got a horrid cup I can take the reading right then. “See, the bitterness is right off the scale here, you’re going to have to find me a new barista.”